Monday, November 4, 2013

US promises to consult with Israel on any Iran deal | The Times of Israel

Friday, September 20, 2013

Leaked video reveals Syrian rebels are to blame for Ghouta chemical attack

Photo: AFP

A video has been downloaded showing jihadist rebels in Syria firing chemical weapons hours after the August attack on Ghouta. That incident was followed by global contempt and was considered to be passed on to Bashar Al-Assad’s forces.

0The footage shows opposition militants firing shells and rockets at night. They are wearing gas masks and are surrounded by jihadist garb. The video was shot in of August almost at the same time when the alleged chemical weapons attack on Ghouta had been made.

0The militant group is called the Islam Battalion, with a base in eastern Ghouta. The operation is dubbed “al-Reeh al-Sarsar” (Almighty Wind), and the shells are being launched towards the Damascus suburb of al-Qaboun.

0The video was highlighted by blogger Brown Moses, who has been considered to be a reliable source on chemical weapons. The blogger’s research almost always points the finger at the Syrian government for using chemical weapons.

0Later a range of interviews with rebels occurred. Those interviews admitted the rebels not Assad were to blame for the August 21 chemical weapons attack. According to the militants, they failed to handle the chemical weapons provided to them by Saudi Arabia properly, and that mistake caused an explosion which led to the incident that killed hundreds of people.

0Leaked telephone conversations and footage of the weapons’ testing that emerged earlier between two members of the Free Syrian Army contained details of a plan to carry out a chemical attack.

0It is also known that the journalists kidnapped by rebels and released last week later reported the media that they had heard rebels talking about the fact that the August attack was not carried out by Assad’s army.

0German intelligence’s data also indicates that Assad was not responsible for last month’s attack or any other alleged chemical weapons usage in Syria.

0Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated Russia is going to provide the UN Security Council with data, “proving that the chemical weapons near Damascus were used by the opposition”.

0Voice of Russia, Infowars

Syria, chemical weapons, Syrian opposition, Syrian rebels, Syria. Chemical weapons. War?, Syrian conflict, Syrian government, World

Friday, August 30, 2013

chycho: Lest we forget, an attack on Syria is an attack on...

chycho: Lest we forget, an attack on Syria is an attack on...: United States involvement in Syria has nothing to do with a repressive regime. After all, in 2002 the United States willingly used Assad’s ...

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Typhoon jets sent to Cyprus to guard against possible Syrian retaliation

RAF says fighters' presence is a precautionary measure against any potential attacks on bases if intervention is agreed

Nick Hopkins
theguardian.com, Thursday 29 August 2013 11.16 BST

RAF Typhoons, like the ones that will be on standby in Cyprus. Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

The UK is sending six RAF Typhoon jets to Cyprus to defend the strategically important bases on the island against potential retaliatory attacks from the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
The Ministry of Defence confirmed that the fighters were flying to the Mediterranean on Thursday morning, ahead of any possible military action against Syria in the coming days.
The MoD stressed that the jets were not being sent to conduct potential ground-attack missions against Assad's regime, but were there as a precautionary measure.
The UK has two sovereign base areas on the former British colony at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. The aircraft will be based at the Akrotiri base, which has been a key staging post for military flights to and from Afghanistan.
The bases are also home to listening and surveillance stations that provide the British and US militaries, and western intelligence services, with vital information about what is going on across the Middle East.
Military analysts have expressed concern that Cyprus might be in range of Syria's Scud missiles. Assad also has a strong air force.
An RAF spokesman said: "We can confirm that as part of ongoing contingency planning, six RAF Typhoon interceptor fast jets are deploying this morning to Akrotiri in Cyprus. This is purely a prudent and precautionary measure to ensure the protection of UK interests and the defence of our sovereign base areas at a time of heightened tension in the wider region.
"This is a movement of defensive assets operating in an air-to-air role only. They are not deploying to take part in any military action against Syria. The PM has made clear no decision has been taken on our response and the government has said that there will be a Commons vote before direct military involvement".
The MoD said the deployment was meant to deter and protect against attack from the air, and that the Typhoons would be armed with advanced medium range air-to-air missiles (Amraams), advanced short-range air-to-air missile (Asraams) and a Mauser cannon.
The RAF's four frontline Typhoon squadrons are based at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and RAF Leuchars in Fife. Each squadron operates up to 15 aircraft.
Prof Michael Clarke, the director general of the defence thinktank the Royal United Services Institute, said there was a threat to British interests in Cyprus whether or not it was used to launch strikes on Syria, so sensible measures would be in place to defend it.
"If the Syrians wanted to retaliate, they would retaliate against British bases whether or not it had been used," he said.
"The safety of Cyprus is not an issue here but you would take sensible actions to keep Cyprus properly defended. Defending Cyprus is not a problem but there will be measures taken to be on alert."
The MoD said there were currently around 2,500 military and UK civilian personnel serving on the bases, accompanied by around 3,000 family members.
Two infantry battalions serve there. One provides security to UK defence assets and the other provides a high readiness reserve force for operations.
The base at Akrotiri is home to 84 Squadron, a search-and-rescue helicopter and a range of other units. A number are involved in providing air transport links and other support to operations in Afghanistan, including decompression for personnel returning from operations there.
A further 270 UK personnel are based in Nicosia on peacekeeping duties, as part of the UN force in Cyprus.

Typhoon jets sent to Cyprus to guard against possible Syrian retaliation

RAF says fighters' presence is a precautionary measure against any potential attacks on bases if intervention is agreed

Nick Hopkins
theguardian.com, Thursday 29 August 2013 11.16 BST

RAF Typhoons, like the ones that will be on standby in Cyprus. Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

Russia to send two warships to Mediterranean

Russia warns of "catastrophic consequences" of U.S. strike against Syria, sends anti-submarine vessel, missile cruiser to the Mediterranean • However, high-ranking Russian officials say it "will not go to war with anyone" over Syria.

Eli Leon, News Agencies and Israel Hayom Staff

Russian missle cruiser Moskva [Illustrative]

Photo credit: AFP

Russia hinted Wednesday that while it adamantly believes the West should not interfere in the Syrian civil war, it is highly unlikely that it will actively intervene in case the U.S. will mount an attack against Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime.

"Russia will not intervene if Syria is attacked," an unnamed, high-ranking government source in Moscow was quoted as saying by the Russian news agency Interfax.

The official's remark echoed a statement by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Monday that Russia had "no plans to go to war with anyone" over Syria.

But despite these statements, a Russian defense official said that the country would send two ships to the eastern Mediterranean to strengthen its naval presence because of the "well-known situation" there.

Interfax quoted a source in the armed forces' general staff as saying an anti-submarine vessel and a missile cruiser would be sent in the coming days because the situation "required us to make some adjustments" in the naval force. According to Reuters, the Russian Defense Ministry refused to comment on the matter.

Russia, which -- together with China -- has been using its veto power in the U.N. Security Council to ward off any resolutions against Syria, warned Wednesday that a Western military intervention in the Syrian civil war could have "catastrophic consequences" for the Middle East, and urged the international community to show "prudence" over the crisis.

Moscow, which is Damascus' main weapons supplier, has been trying to convince the U.N.'s Security Council to force the U.S. to back down and nix its plans to strike Syria as punishment for using chemical weapons against civilian in an Aug. 21 attack on the outskirts of Damascus.

U.S. President Barack Obama stated Wednesday that Washington has unequivocal proof that the Syrian army used toxic gas -- most probably sarin -- on the civilian population in the area.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said that the U.S. and the U.K. were trying "to bypass the Security Council, once again to create artificial groundless excuses for a military intervention in the region," warning that the "unwarranted attack" would have "catastrophic consequences for other countries of the Middle East and North Africa.

"We are calling on our American partners and all members of the world community to demonstrate prudence [and] strict observance of international law, especially the fundamental principles of the U.N. Charter," he said.

Iran commander: US strike on Syria will mean the 'imminent destruction' of Israel | JPost | Israel News

Defiant Syrian PM: We will attack foreign aggressors like in Yom Kippur War | JPost | Israel News

Amid Syria tensions, Russia sends more warships to Mediterranean | JPost | Israel News

Thursday, July 25, 2013

The EU versus the law

Experts

The EU versus the law

07/23/2013 17:53 By EVELYN GORDON

New EU directives are something no Israeli government could accept, because they violate Israeli law.

La Judée et Samarie, éternels territoires disputés.

Photo by: Reuters

That the new European Union directives published last week will further undermine prospects for peace talks has been amply discussed: The Palestinians obviously have no incentive to compromise with Israel if they think the EU will pressure it to make concessions for free. But in their zeal to determine Israel’s borders for it, EU bureaucrats also overlooked another tiny detail – a minor impediment called the law. This has nothing to do with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s “intransigence” or his “right-wing” government; the problem would apply equally to a left-wing government: In a democratic country governed by the rule of law, the government cannot simply pretend the law doesn’t exist, even if it wants to.

The directives bar the EU from funding or cooperating with Israeli entities that conduct activity in the West Bank, Golan Heights or east Jerusalem. They also state that any new agreement signed with Israel should “endeavor” to include a clause stipulating that these areas aren’t part of the State of Israel and therefore aren’t covered by the agreement

Thursday, July 4, 2013

The Engineered Fall of Syria: Extensive Intelligence and Paramilitary Network Exposed

Analysis, Flashpoints, Intelligentsia, Paramilitary, Regime Change, StratagemOctober 22, 2012

The Engineered Fall of Syria: Extensive Intelligence and Paramilitary Network Exposed

Source: WAP
Editor’s Note: I’ve never been interested in being a cheerleader for any side, but merely objectively viewing, and commenting from my vantage point. Read this article in full, there is a machine at work in Syria. An immense war machine backed up with various intelligence agencies of the west, the smartest war strategists and logistical minds in the world. My question is why is it taking so long for them to bring down Syria? A nation the size of North Dakota, shouldn’t be much trouble for the US. Has Russia, China and Iran outflanked the global police of the world? Have they provided Assad with the necessary intelligence and ground-to-air military weaponry? Is that why the US is so hesitant to make real overt moves instead of prodding Turkey to take the fall? The US, Europe and the Arab Nations are deeply invested in this conflict. Will the gloves be taken off after the election or will they continue their proxy war until the last of Assad’s inner circle jump ship? –Michael Vail
At this stage, the “battle for Syria” is a specific role for foreign intelligence agencies, which in the summer of this year, significantly expanded its operations in the country. American, British, Turkish, French and Qatari and Saudi secret services are particularly active on the weakening of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Their subversive work is multifaceted. Until recently, Western intelligence agencies have shown themselves very carefully. This was explained by fears of the U.S. and its European allies to help to strengthen the Islamist component of the Syrian opposition. Because of this the initial work on Syria in a new environment they had a task to set up and establish contacts with Islamic opposition. Once this was achieved, their interaction with opponents Assad markedly increased, and so far in this area has developed a certain “division of labor”.
Ensuring the supply chain and finance arms Assad opponents
Until recently, the main task of the opposition to supply everything you need, including weapons, carried out mainly Qatari, Saudi and Turkish security forces. Their Western counterparts were largely confined to the latest diversion of special means of communication to facilitate the transfer of information outside of Syria and allow the opposition to communicate with virtually no risk of being intercepted by Syrian security forces.
The case detection by Syrian security forces have killed militants special samples of high-precision weapons like sniper rifles Austrian Steyr explained by the fact that the same Qataris being moved to Syria from its own stockpiles.
But now, due to a significant expansion of the fighting, previous approaches revised increase of subversion against the Assad regime. So, in the beginning of August in the open access information leaked that President Barack Obama signed a secret decree authorizing the CIA to supply the Syrian opposition more modern weapons and to provide limited financial assistance to her. Meanwhile, according to U.S. sources, a new beginning is in May of this year

Until recently, most of the illegally supplied weapons to Syria was basically the old Soviet weapons with Bulgarian warehouses, as well as from the Libyan arsenals. However, it is necessary to fight the Syrian army combat equipment of modern anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles (ATGM and MANPADS) militants have been scarce. According to U.S. sources, Obama’s decision to allow a large extent solve the problem: in the beginning of June to Syria hit first series of ATRA. Was selected for the delivery of Russian-made weapons. According to sources in the U.S., ATGM “Metis-M” and “Kornet-E” are purchased in third countries. After that, in July and August, from Libya to Syria were transferred MANPADS Soviet production.

But in this case, the U.S. intelligence services actually perform only an intermediary, helping the Saudi and Qatari counterparts to implement the technical part of the deal and deliver it to the starting point smuggle in Syria, including Jordan and Turkey. On a similar scheme in the supply of weapons involved and France, although made on September 14 during a visit to Beirut public refusal of the Minister of Defence of France, Jean-Yves Le Drian arming the Syrian opposition. In particular, Paris helps Qatar deliver to Turkey and Jordan, assault rifles and grenade launchers, which are paid again on Qatari money.

On a similar scheme of the British security services, which are also not directly involved weapons-delivery, preferring to act through intermediaries.
Meanwhile, Western intelligence agencies have an important role in the armory of the chain, at least, through the Bulgarian state company Kintex, is engaged in the export of arms. According to reports, the weapon is carried in Syria “with the logistical support of a number of Western intelligence agencies, including (French Intelligence. – Ed.) DGSE”.

In turn, the Turkish secret services, which until recently were most active in Syria, the opposition deliver a better explosives. Earlier, in the absence of TNT, plastic explosives and other explosives, opposition fighters used against the Syrian army homemade explosives based fertilizers, inherent in the metal pipes.
But ensuring the transfer of all necessary Syrian militants is not limited to weapons and explosives. This effort also includes the continued delivery of special means of communication (seen in the U.S. and to a lesser extent the French secret services) and providing financial support. This direction is the work of foreign intelligence services in Syria since the start of the conflict lay primarily on the Saudi and Qatari security services, which are paid the lion’s share of the cost of doing subversive work against the Assad regime. To a lesser extent in this area worked their Western counterparts.
West provides financial support rather sparingly and rather makes it symbolically to enhance the effect of the provision of assistance, both supporters and opponents to Assad. So, for example, has already leaked information about the recent allocation of the State Department in a “one-off mode,” the Syrian opposition in the amount of $ 15 million. Another important article replenishment opposition are raising cash of living in the Western states, from Arab countries. This helps to minimize their costs of western countries to overthrow the Assad regime.
The decomposition of the ruling elite
One of the most important in the “Battle for Syria” activities of foreign intelligence services is to establish or resume contact with the functionaries of Assad, inducing them to flee and to provide them safe passage. First of all, this problem is implementing the French DGSE, which organized the flight from Syria Brigadier Manaf Tlaasa and several other senior functionaries of the regime. Part of this work take on the Qatari and Saudi secret services, who mixed success trying to persuade him to move to the opposition Syrian diplomats.
Providing intelligence
Especially important are the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, the French secret service to supply the opposition intelligence on troop movements regime and data radio communications. The latter is carried out with Turkey, Israel, from specially equipped ships in the Mediterranean. Equally important is the work of spy satellites, the information with which regularly transmits the opposition, allowing it time to go away from the blow of government forces or, alternatively, to make successful raids.
Education militants

A particularly important task of the secret services of Western countries regarding Syria – training opposition forces and facilitate their transfer to the conflict zone. Since the beginning of the summer this year in neighboring Syria, the country, including Jordan and Turkey, came strength of special units from the U.S., UK and France, as well as enhanced staff stations in those countries under the pretext that they are needed for the case where the Assad regime will collapse and will need as soon as possible to control of chemical weapons in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Salafis.
But this was only one of the tasks of Western intelligence services. Thus, the Turkish and French press reported that French intelligence services are engaged in Turkey specialized training for street fighting militants. There is evidence of participation in the training of British intelligence and special forces.
According to sources from Amman, in Jordan only, which is the second most important “springboard” struggle for Syria, finalizing the above “10,000 Libyans”, after which they must throw on Syrian territory. This includes not only the citizens of Libya, and other North African countries, including notable are Algerians and Egyptians.

Preparation and supply of pay Saudi Arabia and Qatar. According to reports, monthly allowance of one such soldier is more than a thousand dollars.
For these purposes, in particular, uses a special operational training center of King Abdullah II (KASOTC), created around Amman in 2009 by American and Saudi allies. In late May of this year, there was training of special forces antiasadovskih countries, including Saudi Arabia, under the U.S. command, which so nervously took the official Damascus.
As for the training itself Syrians, it is under the guidance of experienced instructors with the CIA and its Arab allies. And it’s not about training from scratch. Special training is primarily “people with experience,” many of whom are former officers of the Syrian army.
Similarly, it is with the participation of Western intelligence agencies to train the opposition in Jordan and Turkey. Despite the fact that it is under the guidance of their instructors, they really try not to appear, preferring to provide technical work Jordanian, Saudi and Turkish counterparts. The exception is the training of the transfer of encrypted messages. The training program is aimed at the destruction or seizure of protected sites, including special forces and fight against the Syrian Air Force, the Alawite units, considered one of the most loyal to the regime.
Question of the participation of Western intelligence agencies in fighting in Syria
Despite the fact that the Syrian government sources have repeatedly pointed to the involvement of employees in the conduct of Western intelligence agencies subversive activities and operations in Syria, the Syrian security officials so far only been able to intercept certain types of special equipment or weapons. Nevertheless, in the English language and the Israeli media as there were reports that the special forces of NATO countries in coordination with the intelligence agencies of Western countries have conducted limited independent “intelligence operations” in the border area.
In particular, such information comes from Turkey, where, according to local sources, 26 June British special forces had one of these raids. In these circumstances, is not excluded, and further limited participation of such forces in special operations. For example, despite the fact that it is free Syrian army claimed the destruction of several radar stations along the border with Jordan (the Assad regime has deprived the possibility to obtain relevant information throughout the south-eastern Syrian border), security sources ATS believe that this is the work of “Special Forces CIA.” The meaning of such activities of foreign intelligence services is to transform the Syrian border area in the free zones Assad forces in the future will create staging areas for possible intervention.
The role of Saudi intelligence
Important role in the destabilization of the Syrian regime is the work of Saudi intelligence, traditionally having a wide network of agents in Syria and the region as a whole. Special attention is paid to their Lebanese tracks, through which CAP is still being transferred much of the supplies it with the volume of arms.
Meanwhile, the Saudis have not managed to cope with the challenges they face. It is no accident July 19, King Abdullah dismissed the head of Saudi General Intelligence Service (PDS) Mukrina bin Abdul Aziz, who had to leave the post on or after 2013, and replaced him with Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Before Bandar bin Sultan delivered a double task: expanding covert operations of the kingdom in the region to accelerate the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad and providing a counterweight to Iranian expansion in the Middle East.
In many ways, the decision came through the CIA, David Petraeus, the head of which specifically met with King Abdullah in the ten days prior to the appointment of Bandar. The latter was the U.S. ambassador to the CSA in 2005 for 22 years and therefore has personal connections and acquaintances in the American establishment, including the leadership of the U.S. intelligence services.
Although the Saudi authorities have sought to explain care Mukrina allegedly aggravated his liver disease, but in reality there are other reasons.
An important point of destination Bandar bin Sultan is its ability to covert organization of negotiations with Russia.
After all, he was the architect of rapprochement Riyadh and Moscow in 2007 Since that time, the individual focus of his work is the change of the Russian position regarding support for the Syrian regime. And in this he has great potential, given its ability to enter the leadership of the Russian special services and Russian Security Council.
In addition, the resignation Mukrina not least due to its inertness and lack of real progress in strengthening the GRA. It is no accident Bandar bin Sultan after his arrival took steps to attract new employees and professionalism already working.
The work it performs in tandem with his son Abdulaziz bin Bandar, who was considered the number two figure in the PDS in 2003 and is the unofficial rival Prince Mukrina in this special service. Given that his mother, Princess Haifa bin Faisal, the sister of Turki bin Faisal, who led the COP from 1977 to 2001., 35-year-old Abdulaziz is hereditary secret services. However, his uncle, Saud bin Faisal, who served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, and to some extent connected with the secret services.
Coordinating the work of foreign intelligence services in Syria

Great importance in the management of subversive activities against the Assad regime is given coordination. Thus, the work of militant training CIA performs together with the Jordanian General Intelligence Service, with which it has operated successfully in the recent war in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as with Saudi security forces. A separate area of their activities – training “new Syrian intelligence services.” Among their tasks – keeping and identification counterintelligence agents in the ranks of the opposition.

The need for such work is visible from the example of the relevant US-Turkish contacts due to the fact that the Turkish security forces largely paralyzed as a result of deterioration of the Kurdish question. Leaders MIT in September often gave rise allies of the United States to understand that in a sharp activation of the PKK, including serving on the Syrian territory, it is not able to fully participate in the operation against the Assad regime, and therefore request the necessary action to suppress Kurdish separatists of intelligence, primarily resulting spy satellites.
The seriousness of the situation at the Turkish border region indicates that the request was played at least twice: on September 17-18 at the meetings in Ankara, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, USA with representatives of the Turkish military and political leaders, and September 2-3 the relevant consultations in Turkey’s capital head of the CIA David Petraeus.
Of particular importance is the establishment of coordination interaction between Saudi and Turkish security forces.
The new head of the Saudi General Intelligence Service Bandar bin Sultan in September personally met with the head of the Turkish MIT Hakan Fidanom order to establish support for the Syrian opposition in view of the fact that the Turkish security forces forced to divert substantial resources to fight the PKK. By the beginning of September, a group of Saudi intelligence officers arrived at the Turkish base in Adana, located 100 kilometers from the border with Syria, where opposition groups are preparing.
In turn, the fight against the “Iranian threat” Saudis in Bahrain, Iraq and Qatif province, Saudi kingdom help their Pakistani counterparts from ISI. Thanks to this, Bandar bin Sultan free hand to allocate additional resources to respond to the Assad regime.
However, the effectiveness of covert operations in Syria and effect political change. For example, this election in France, which resulted in retired President Nicolas Sarkozy. It was very close last emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, one of the main proponents of increased action against the Assad regime. In order for a change of leadership in the country, including the progress in the security services, to resume full cooperation, it took almost three months, and only in August, French President Francois Hollande confirmed joint covert operations between the French and Qatari special services in support of the Syrian opposition .
Meetings with key members of management of Qatar and France are not recently at least twice a month. They, in particular, deals with the transportation of French arms to Syria and tracking routes for everything you need to Assad’s army, especially from Russia. So far, according to available information, the parties shall refrain from carrying out acts of sabotage against the Russian-Syrian arms trafficking. At least, so far restrained Paris aggressive aspirations of the Emir of Qatar in this regard, preferring to try to influence Russia diplomatically.
Supporting role
Of great importance in the work against CAP is also given support functions. With the help of foreign intelligence services established health care militants not only in neighboring countries such as Syria, Jordan (creating medical and surgical unit Zaatar refugee camp), but also directly on Syrian territory.

An important role is played by the involvement of foreign intelligence agencies in setting rescued from an area of Damascus. In this field manifest themselves French secret services, assisted by Eric Chevalier, who was the French ambassador in Damascus until February of this year It is not only on the supply of food, but also about the structure of government in the occupied areas Assad’s opponents, as it was in Azaz, where he coordinated the work, together with a prominent opposition figure Riyad Seif.

Prospects for foreign intelligence services in Syria
Actions of U.S. President Barack Obama became a kind of a signal to foreign counterparts to strengthen the CIA secret assistance to the Syrian opposition. The West has little to hide his involvement in covert operations in the hope that this alone will serve to Assad and his additional demoralizing factor.
Calculation of the Syrian regime opponents and built on the fact that with the increasing assistance through intelligence fighters inflict losses to the Assad regime, which will lead eventually to its collapse. Judging by sounding a warning to the Syrian president by Russian and Iranian advisers from the military and security services, these expectations are not groundless. As on estimates of both, the Syrian army is ill-prepared for a protracted guerrilla war, fomented by foreign intelligence services.

The BRIC countries are becoming the world’s new global navy

Analysis, Flashpoints, GeoPolitics, Military BuildupMay 18, 2013

The BRIC countries are becoming the world’s new global navy

Source: QZ
Offshore from Syria, Russia’s navy is conducting probably its largest naval deployment outside its own waters since the Soviet breakup. The Chinese navy is in another potential confrontation today with Japan in the East China Sea, and raising questions about where it is headed next.
But the BRIC nations as a whole—a force in the global economic conversation since the acronym was coined by Goldman Sachs to refer to the high-growth economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China—are becoming an increasing naval presence on the high seas. One reason is simple nature—when nations become wealthier, they tend to build up their fighting capabilities. But another is natural resources—all four nations either want to buy or sell oil and natural gas, and they are venturing further and further to do so.
A paradox is that while the shift challenges US primacy on the high seas, the US itself—because of its oil and gas boom—is driving part of the BRIC naval expansion.
Because it is providing for more and more of its own energy requirements, the US is importing much less African and Middle East crude, and the chief new buyers replacing it are BRIC nations—the US is about to be displaced by India as the largest buyer of Nigerian crude oil, for example. “It is only a matter of time before we see Indian ships in the South Atlantic [to patrol the coast of West Africa],” Brahma Chellaney, of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, told the Financial Times.
Such a shift—an expansion of Indian forces from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic—would be huge. But so is the entirety of the BRIC naval activity. Russia has been a maritime power since Peter the Great, and Zheng He made China a major 15^thcentury naval power. But Russia all-but stopped venturing outside former Soviet waters in 1992, and China has not fielded a major navy in the six centuries since Zheng He. Brazil and India have largely stuck to their own shores.
Beijing’s and Moscow’s naval assertiveness, particularly in Syria and the South and East China seas, attracts most of the attention. But India is building a second aircraft carrier, and may have three by 2020, along with four nuclear-powered submarines and various other modern ships. In 2012, India dispatched warships to the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the western Mediterranean. And in 2008 and 2010, India and Brazil conducted joint naval operations with South Africa on the Indian Ocean side of Africa.
In November 2012, some 10,000 Brazilian sailors and soldiers conducted an exercise called “Operation Atlantico 3,” meant to demonstrate the country’s ability to defend its offshore oilfields.
A greater BRIC role on global trade routes is not a negative development for the US, says Ely Ratner of the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC.
“There’s no reason the American taxpayer should be subsidizing the freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean when emerging powers like China and India are both increasingly capable of providing this service and are the primary beneficiaries of open sea lanes between Africa, the Middle East and Asia,” Ratner told me in an email exchange. “These trends will only become more prominent as the United States becomes even less reliant on direct access to Middle Eastern oil.”

Israel maintains military assets in Eritrea to spy on Iran: report

Military, PolicyDecember 13, 2012

Israel maintains military assets in Eritrea to spy on Iran: report

Source: NZ
Israel has set up military bases in Eritrea to monitor Iran and other hostile activities in the Red Sea, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported Wednesday.
The U.S.-based strategy consultancy firm quoted “diplomatic sources” as saying that the Israeli military presence is comprised of docks and small naval units in the Dahlak Archipelago and Massawa, and a listening post on Mt. Amba Sawara.
“Israel’s presence in Eritrea is very focused and precise, involving intelligence gathering in the Red Sea and monitoring Iran’s activities,” Stratfor said.
According to the report, the East African nation has become an arena of operations for both Israel and Iran, with both vying to bolster their influence in the Horn of Africa.
The Israeli operations in the area are believed to mainly focus on tracking Iranian arms smuggling to militants in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Ships loaded with rockets and other munitions travel through the Red Sea to Sudan and Egypt, from where the cargo is then transferred via land routes to Gaza or placed on ships bound for Syria and Lebanon.
The Israel Air Force has reportedly attacked arms convoys in Sudan several times in the past, and is widely credited with the October bombing of the Yarmouk munitions plant near the Sudanese capital of Khartoum where Iran had presumably planned to set up a workshop for manufacturing long-range missiles.
Though Israel kept mum on the affair, an Israeli official told The Sunday Times last month that Iran has built a “strategic arm” in Gaza.
“Regardless of the ceasefire agreement (with Hamas), we will attack and destroy any shipment of arms to Gaza,” he said.
According to Stratfor, in addition to Israel, Eritrea accommodates Iranian military operations “relevant to Tehran’s larger goal of controlling the Bab el-Mandab Strait and the water route to the Suez Canal.”
“In exchange for resources, possibly including modest amounts of cash and weapons, Eritrea has exhibited a willingness to become a base of support for Middle Eastern powers,” the report analyzes Asmara’s decision to nurture relations with the two rival nations.
It said Eritrea seeks to befriend Israel for “numerous security and political reasons,” such as Israel’s “close ties with Washington… and to acquire better air defense capabilities to defend against a possible attack from Ethiopia,” as well as ” balancing its controversial relationship with Tehran.”
Eritrea is not the only base for Israeli military operations abroad.
Earlier this month, The Sunday Times reported that numerous reports over the past year have claimed that Israel is maintaining a military presence in Azerbaijan, where it deploys unmanned Predator drones to preemptively strike Iranian missile sites in the event of a war.
According to other reports, Israel has purchased an abandoned airfield in the country from which it could launch a strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

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Israel Deploys Nuclear Weapons on German-Built Submarines

Military Buildup, News, RisksJune 3, 2012

Israel Deploys Nuclear Weapons on German-Built Submarines

S ource: Der Spiegel
A German shipyard has already built three submarines for Israel, and three more are planned. Now SPIEGEL has learned that Israel is arming the submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The German government has known about Israel’s nuclear weapons program for decades, despite its official denials.
Germany is helping Israel to develop its military nuclear capabilities, SPIEGEL has learned. According to extensive research carried out by the magazine, Israel is equipping submarines that were built in the northern German city of Kiel and largely paid for by the German government with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The missiles can be launched using a previously secret hydraulic ejection system. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak told SPIEGEL that Germans should be “proud” that they have secured the existence of the state of Israel “for many years.”
In the past, the German government has always stuck to the position that it is unaware of nuclear weapons being deployed on the vessels. Now, however, former high-ranking officials from the German Defense Ministry, including former State Secretary Lothar Rühl and former chief of the planning staff Hans Rühle, have told SPIEGEL that they had always assumed that Israel would deploy nuclear weapons on the submarines. Rühl had even discussed the issue with the military in Tel Aviv.
Israel has a policy of not commenting officially on its nuclear weapons program. Documents from the archives of the German Foreign Ministry make it clear, however, that the German government has known about the program since 1961. The last discussion for which there is evidence took place in 1977, when then-Chancellor Helmut Schmidt spoke to then-Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan about the issue.
The submarines are built by the German shipyard HDW in Kiel. Three submarines have already been delivered to Israel, and three more will be delivered by 2017. In addition, Israel is considering ordering its seventh, eighth and ninth submarines from Germany.
The German government recently signed the contract for the delivery of the sixth vessel. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, Chancellor Angela Merkel made substantial concessions to the Israelis. Not only is Berlin financing one-third of the cost of the submarine, around €135 million ($168 million), but it is also allowing Israel to defer its payment until 2015.
Merkel had tied the delivery of the sixth submarine to a number of conditions, including a demand that Israel stop its expansionist settlement policy and allow the completion of a sewage treatment plant in the Gaza Strip, which is partially financed with German money. So far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met none of the terms

African Union warns Libya has become ‘important’ terrorism transit hub

Flashpoints, RisksJune 25, 2013

African Union warns Libya has become ‘important’ terrorism transit hub

Source: MDO
Libya is becoming an important transit hub for terrorists, constituting an “extremely dangerous” development in the region, an African Union leader said Tuesday on the sidelines of a regional security meeting in Algeria.

“I have many reports which say Libya has become an important transit hub for the main terrorist groups travelling from one country to another,” said Francisco Caetano Jose Madeira, the AU’s special representative in charge of counter terrorism.

“We have information according to which some terrorists active in Mali consider Libya as a refuge and a place to regroup,” Madeira told journalists, describing that as something “extremely dangerous.”

The vulnerable security situation in Libya and the porosity of its borders nearly three years after an uprising toppled dictator Moamer Gathafi, was a key concern at the two-day meeting in Algeria’s western city of Oran.

“The question of Libya is on everyone’s mind,” said the European Union representative for the Sahel region, Michel Reveyrand de Menthon.

He described the North African country as “one of the keys” to stabilising the Sahel, a vast strip of land abutting the southern Sahara desert from Mauritania on Africa’s west coast to Eritrea in the east.

The EU has offered to cooperate with Libya on the question of border security but Western sources say the lack of organisation in the country since Kadhafi’s overthrow makes such a project “very difficult.”

“Very few Sahel countries have the means to really protect their borders,” the AU’s Madeira said.

In Mali, the security situation remains highly uncertain, despite the UN Security Council agreeing on Tuesday to a 12,600-strong peacekeeping force, and a recent ceasefire accord allowing for the army to move into key areas of the north so that presidential elections can be held in July.

There is little information on the fate of many Islamist militants who took over the north of the country last year before they were driven out in a French-led military intervention launched in January.

“It’s hard to know exactly what is going on. The threat is always there but it is difficult to identify,” said one Western diplomat.